Seafood Of India

Blog Post

A Market in Flux: US Shrimp Imports Defy Tariffs and Tumult to Achieve Near-Record Volumes in 2025

The United States shrimp market proved remarkably resilient in 2025. Despite a barrage of steep reciprocal tariffs, countervailing duties (CVD), and alarming food safety recalls, US importers closed the year with their fourth-largest volume in history. Reaching a total of 795,641 metric tons (MT)—a 2% increase over 2024—the data reveals a complex year defined by aggressive front-loading, geopolitical maneuvering, and dramatic shifts in the global supply chain. Total import value also climbed by 9% year-over-year to $7.03 billion.

The 2025 Timeline: A Tale of Two Halves

The modest full-year growth masks immense volatility, splitting 2025 into two distinct phases driven primarily by impending trade policies:

  • The Pre-Tariff Rush (H1): The first half of the year saw double-digit growth, peaking in June with a massive 35% year-over-year surge. Importers aggressively front-loaded shipments to secure inventory ahead of the looming reciprocal tariffs targeting major Asian suppliers.
  • The Q4 Collapse (H2): Once the higher duties took effect, the market saw a sharp contraction. By October, volumes dropped 21% year-over-year, and December closed down 11%.

How the Top Suppliers Fared

The shifting trade dynamics forced a major realignment among the “Big Three” suppliers to the US market.

1. India: Retaining the Crown, but Feeling the Squeeze

India remained the largest single supplier to the US, shipping 300,051 MT (up 1% YoY). However, this annual stability is deceptive. Following the imposition of a 25% reciprocal tariff—compounded by penalties related to Russian oil purchases and existing anti-dumping duties—the effective tariff rate for Indian shrimp skyrocketed to an estimated 58.26%.

While existing orders buffered the impact early in the year, Indian shipments to the US collapsed by 57% in October. This stark reality underscores the urgent need for a pivot in business strategy and exports, accelerating the industry’s push to diversify toward emerging markets like Europe, China, and Vietnam.

2. Ecuador: The Clear Structural Winner

Ecuador capitalized heavily on the tariff disparities in Asia. Subject to much lower US tariff rates (around 10–15%), Ecuador surged ahead to reach 231,804 MT in 2025, marking an impressive 18% year-over-year growth. By scaling their headless, shell-on shrimp exports and maintaining cost competitiveness, Ecuadorian producers effectively absorbed the market share left vulnerable by Asian suppliers.

3. Indonesia: Radiation Scares and Trade Hurdles

Indonesia finished the year down 11% at 119,331 MT. While initially poised to benefit from India’s high tariffs, Indonesia’s momentum was derailed in the fourth quarter. Severe food safety concerns—specifically the Cesium-137 radiation issue affecting Indonesian shipments—triggered widespread import bans. By December, Indonesian shrimp imports to the US had plummeted by a staggering 72%.

Value Outpaces Volume

A standout trend from the 2025 data is that the total value of imports (+9%) grew significantly faster than the volume (+2%). This was driven by two key factors:

  • Product Shifts: A gradual but noticeable tilt toward higher-value products, such as cooked and marinated shrimp.
  • Price Adjustments: The tariff burdens on major suppliers inevitably forced average wholesale prices higher in the latter half of the year, costs that are slowly being passed down the supply chain.

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *